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2020年,疫情全球大流行以及中国与部分国家经济关系的恶化致使中国经济外交面临着更为严峻的外部环境。一方面,疫情严重拖累了全球生产、贸易和投资等经济活动,对国际政治互信及全球治理协作等也造成了负面冲击。另一方面,中美贸易战由"关税战"向"技术战"全面蔓延,"金融战"也处于边缘状态。同时,受政治关系的影响,中澳和中印经济关系也出现了全面倒退。面对上述复杂的局势,中国经济外交继续砥砺前行,不仅在全球经济治理、区域经济合作和双边经济协调上取得了诸多进展;更是在贸易协定外交和投资协定外交两大领域双双实现了重大突破,成功签署了《区域全面经济伙伴关系协议》并完成了《中欧全面投资协定》的谈判。展望2021年,拜登新政府上台执政将可能带来全球经济治理格局的重大变化,也为中美经济关系的调整与改变带来新的契机;"一带一路"建设将进入高质量发展阶段,其实施重点可能转向推动各国卫生合作与经济复苏;在亚太经济一体化与区域经济合作制度化上,中国经济外交也有望取得更多进展。
Abstract：In 2020, the global pandamic and the deterioration of economic relations between China and some countries have posed challenges to China's economic diplomacy. On the one hand, the pandamic has severely hampered global economic activities from production, trade, to investment, which exerted negative impacts on international cooperation and global governance. On the other hand, the trade war between China and the U.S. is spilling over from a "tariff war" to a "technology war", and even to a "financial war". At the same time, influenced by political relations, Sino-Australian and Sino-Indian economic relations have also suffered a comprehensive retrogression. Amid a time of multiple challenges, China has continued to forge ahead its economic diplomacy. It has achieved progress in global economic governance as well as bilateral and regional economic cooperation. The successful signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the completion of negotiations on the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement are a couple of examples to name. Looking ahead to 2021, the new Biden administration will probably bring about major changes in the global economic governance and new opportunities for adjustment of China-U. S. economic relations. Meanwhile, the "Belt and Road Initiative" will enter a stage of high-quality development, and its implementation focus may shift to promoting health cooperation and economic recovery among countries. China' s economic diplomacy is also expected to further the institutionalization of economic integration and regional economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.
(1)2015年,中国经济外交取得了诸多突破性进展,譬如顺利筹建亚洲基础设施投资银行、推动人民币顺利加入国际货币基金组织特别提款权货币篮子、分别与韩国及澳大利亚签署自由贸易协定,等等。
(1)“World Economic Outlook”,International Monetary Fund,October,2020,https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020
(2)《2020年四季度和全年国内生产总值(GDP)初步核算结果》,中国国家统计局,2020年1月9日,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202101/t20210119_1812514.html
(3)“World Economic Outlook”,International Monetary Fund,October,2020,https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020
(4)“World Economic Outlook”,International Monetary Fund,October,2020,https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020
(1)“COVID-19 drives large international trade declines in 2020”,United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD),December 9,2020,https://unctad.org/news/covid-19-driveslarge-international-trade-declines-2020
(2)《海关总署2020年全年进出口有关情况新闻发布会》,中国海关总署,2021年1月14日,http://fangtan.customs.gov.cn/tabid/1106/Default.aspx
(3)《2020世界投资报告》,联合国贸易发展组织,2020年6月16日,https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/wir2020_overview_en.pdf
(4)《商务部外资负责人介绍2020年1-11月全球吸收外资情况》,中国商务部,2020年11月15日,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/news/202012/20201203022969.shtml
(1)“Federal Reserve Press Release”,The Federal Reserve,March 15,2020,https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm
(2)“Federal Reserve Press Release”,The Federal Reserve,March 23,2020,https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323a.htm
(3)“Cares Act”,The United States Congress,March 27,2020,https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22hr748%22%5D%7D&r=1&s=1
(4)“Money Stock Measures-H.6 Release”,The Federal Reserve,January 14,2021,https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
(5)“Total Asset and Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions”,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,March 3,2021,https://fred.stlouisfed.org
(1)“DXY:CUR Dollar Index Spot”,Bloomberg,January,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR;“USD to CNY Exchange Rate”,Bloomberg,January,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR
(2)“DXY:CUR Dollar Index Spot”,Bloomberg,January,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR;“USD to CNY Exchange Rate”,Bloomberg,January,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR
(3)“USD to CNY Exchange Rate”,Bloomberg,January,2021,https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR
(4)“Cushing,OK Crude Oil Future contract 1”,Energy Information Administration,January,2021,https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rclc1D.htm
(1)“Cushing,OK Crude Oil Future contract 1”,Energy Information Administration,January,2021,https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rclc1D.htm
(2)《2020年世界粮食安全与营养报告》,联合国粮农组织,2020年7月14日,http://www.fao.org/3/ca9692zh/CA9692ZH.pdf
(1)《粮农组织食品价格指数》,联合国粮农组织,2020年1月7日,http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/zh/
(2)《中美签署第一阶段经贸协议》,新华网,2020年1月16日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2020-01/16/c_1125469375.htm
(1)“U.S. securities regulator warns investors over Chinese company disclosures”,The Reuters,April 22,2020,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sec-china/u-s-securities-regulator-warns-investors-over-chinese-company-disclosures-id USKCN2242A1
(2)“S.945-Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act”,The Congress. gov,December 18,2020,https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/945/text
(3)“DOD Releases List of Additional Companies,In Accordance With Section 1237 of FY99NDAA”,U.S. Department of Defense,December 3,2020,https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2434513/dod-releases-list-of-additional-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1237-of-fy/
(4)“Hong Kong Autonomy Act”,Congress. gov,July 14,2020,https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3798/text;“The President’s Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization”,The White House,July 14,2020,https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/
(1)“Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities”,U.S. Department of the Treasury,January,2021,https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
(1)“Why Chinese Firms Still Flock to American Stock Exchanges”,The Economist,October 17,2020,https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/15/why-chinese-firms-still-flock-to-americanstock-exchanges
(2)“Why Chinese Firms Still Flock to American Stock Exchanges”,The Economist,October 17,2020,https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/15/why-chinese-firms-still-flock-to-americanstock-exchanges
(3)2019年的禁令主要限制美国企业与华为的商业往来,而2020年5月的升级版禁令则是借助全球各大半导体企业所依赖的美制技术,进而对华为进行“长臂管制”,限制华为在美国境外的芯片设计活动以及美国境外的晶圆代工厂为华为芯片的代工。参见:“Commerce Addresses Huawei’s Efforts to Undermine Entity List,Restricts Products Designed and Produced with U.S. Technologies”,U.S. Department of Commerce,May 15,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-addresses-huaweis-efforts-undermine-entity-list-restricts
(1)2020年8月,禁令再度升级,限制华为采购任何使用美国技术生产的芯片成品。因此,结合之前的禁令,且鉴于芯片的生产高度依赖美制技术,无论与华为交易的企业是否为美国企业,无论华为意图采购的芯片是否为华为自研,华为在全球的芯片采购活动基本均受到禁令管制。参见“Commerce Department Further Restricts Huawei Access to U.S. Technology and Adds Another 38Affiliates to the Entity List”,U.S. Department of Commerce,August 17,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/08/commerce-department-further-restricts-huawei-access-us-technologyand
(2)关于美国对华为的打压,系统研究参见:李巍、李玙译:《解析美国对华为的“打压”——跨国供应链的政治经济学》,载《当代亚太》2021年第1期,第4-45页。
(3)2020年5月22日,美国商务部以新疆问题为由将9个中国实体加入实体清单,其中包含云从科技、深网视界、云天励飞3家人工智能公司。参见:“Commerce Department to Add Nine Chinese Entities Related to Human Rights Abuses in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region to the Entity List”,U.S. Department of Commerce,May 22,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-department-add-nine-chinese-entities-related-human-rights.2020年5月22日,美国商务部以与军事活动有关为由将24个中国实体加入实体清单,包括中国人工智能公司达闼科技。参见:“Commerce Department to Add Two Dozen Chinese Companies with Ties to WMD and Military Activities to the Entity List”,U.S. Department of Commerce,May 22,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-department-add-two-dozen-chinese-companies-tieswmd-and.2020年7月20日,美国商务部以新疆问题为由将11个中国实体加入实体清单,其中包括新疆丝路华大基因科技有限公司和北京六合华大基因科技有限公司。参见:“U.S. Commerce Department Adds Eleven Chinese Entities Implicated in Human Rights Abuses in Xinjiang to the Entity List”,Department of Commerce,July 20,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/07/commerce-department-adds-eleven-chinese-entities-implicated-human
(1)2020年8月26日,美国商务部以南海问题为由将26个中国实体加入实体清单。参见:“Commerce Department Adds 24 Chinese Companies to the Entity List for Helping Build Military Islands in the South China Sea”,U.S. Department of Commerce,August 26,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/08/commerce-department-adds-24-chinese-companies-entity-listhelping-build.2020年8月27日,美国商务部以与军事活动有关为由将5个中国实体加入实体清单。参见:“Addition of Entities to the Entity List,and Revision of Entries on the Entity List”,FederalRegister,August 27,2020,https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/08/27/2020-18909/additionof-entities-to-the-entity-list-and-revision-of-entries-on-the-entity-list
(2)2020年9月22日,美国商务部以向伊朗出售原产自美国无人机为由将5个中国实体加入实体清单。参见:“Addition of Entities to the Entity List;Corrections to Certain Existing Entries on the Entity List”,Federal Register,September 22,2020,https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/09/22/2020-18515/addition-of-entities-to-the-entity-list-corrections-to-certain-existing-entries-on-theentity-list
(3)2020年12月22日,美国商务部以多种理由分别将59个中国实体列入实体清单。参见:“Addition of Entities to the Entity List,Revision of Entry on the Entity List,and Removal of Entities From the Entity List”,Federal Register,December 22,2020,https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/22/2020-28031/addition-of-entities-to-the-entity-list-revision-of-entry-on-the-entity-listand-removal-of-entities
(1)“Executive Order on Addressing the Threat Posed by Tik Tok”,The White House,August 6,2020,https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/;“Order Regarding the Acquisition of Musical.ly by Byte Dance Ltd”,The White House,August14,2020,https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/order-regarding-acquisition-musical-lybytedance-ltd/
(2)中国共产党军事企业清单。参见:“Addressing the Threat From Securities Investments That Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies”,Federal Register,November 17,2020,https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/11/17/2020-25459/addressing-the-threat-from-securities-investments-that-finance-communist-chinese-military-companies
(3)美国商务部拟推出军事最终用户清单,其中包括58家中国企业。参见:“Commerce Department Will Publish the First Military End User List Naming More Than 100 Chinese and Russian Companies”,U.S. Department of Commerce,December 21,2020,https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/12/commerce-department-will-publish-first-military-end-user-list-naming
(1)国务院于2020年9月19日批准公布《不可靠实体清单规定》。参见:《商务部令2020年第4号不可靠实体清单规定》,中国商务部,2020年9月19日,http://tfs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/bc/202009/20200903002593.shtml;全国人大常委会于2020年10月17日通过首部《出口管制法》。参见:《中华人民共和国出口管制法(2020年10月17日第十三届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第二十二次会议通过)》,中国人大网,2020年10月17日,http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c30834/202010/cf4e0455f6424a38b5aecf8001712c43.shtml
(1)本报告涉及的自贸协定是经济外交意义上的,主要指国家行为体层面的经济往来。港澳台地区同属于一个中国,不适用经济外交的概念,故不将《内地与港澳更紧密经贸关系安排》列入考察范围。
(2)《钟山部长代表中国政府签署<区域全面经济伙伴关系协定>(RCEP)》,中国自由贸易区服务网,2020年11月15日,http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/article/rcep/rcepnews/202011/43458_1.html
(1)《钟山部长与柬埔寨商业大臣盘索萨共同签署中国-柬埔寨自由贸易协定》,中国自由贸易区服务网,2020年10月12日,http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/article/chinacambodia/chinacambodiaxwfb/202010/43218_1.html
(2)《中欧投资协定谈判完成》,新华社,2020年12月30日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-12 /30/c_1126928995.htm
(1)“EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment”,European Commission,November24,2020,https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=2115
(2)《中国外资统计公报(2020)》,中国商务部,2020年11月5日,http://swt.fj.gov.cn/zjswt/jgzn/jgcs/wzglc/tjsj/202011/P020201123555794829525.pdf
(3)《欧盟27国货物贸易及中欧双边贸易概况》,中国商务部,2020年1月4日,https://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/record/index110209.asp
(1)《发展改革委商务部令第38号鼓励外商投资产业目录(2020年版)》,中国商务部,2020年12 月28日,http://wzs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/n/202012/20201203026619.shtml
(2)《发展改革委商务部令第37号外商投资安全审查办法》,中国商务部,2020年12月19日,http://wzs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/n/202012/20201203024662.shtml
(1)《<新时代的中国国际发展合作>白皮书》,中国国务院新闻办公室,2021年1月10日,http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/32832/Document/1696685/1696685.htm
(2)《刘昆出席二十国集团财长和央行行长特别视频会议》,中国财政部,2020年11月13日,http://wjb.mof.gov.cn/gongzuodongtai/202011/t20201113_3622654.htm
(1)《习近平在气候雄心峰会上的讲话(全文)》,新华网,2020年12月12日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-12/12/c_1126853600.htm
(1)《全球数据安全倡议》主要有如下8点倡议:第一,各国应以事实为依据全面客观看待数据安全问题,积极维护全球信息技术产品和服务的供应链开放、安全、稳定。第二,各国反对利用信息技术破坏他国关键基础设施或窃取重要数据,以及利用其从事危害他国国家安全和社会公共利益的行为。第三,各国承诺采取措施防范、制止利用网络侵害个人信息的行为,反对滥用信息技术从事针对他国的大规模监控、非法采集他国公民个人信息。第四,各国应要求企业严格遵守所在国法律,不得要求本国企业将境外产生、获取的数据存储在境内。第五,各国应尊重他国主权、司法管辖权和对数据的安全管理权,未经他国法律允许不得直接向企业或个人调取位于他国的数据。第六,各国如因打击犯罪等执法需要跨境调取数据,应通过司法协助渠道或其他相关多双边协议解决。国家间缔结跨境调取数据双边协议,不得侵犯第三国司法主权和数据安全。第七,信息技术产品和服务供应企业不得在产品和服务中设置后门,非法获取用户数据、控制或操纵用户系统和设备。第八,信息技术企业不得利用用户对产品依赖性谋取不正当利益,强迫用户升级系统或更新换代。产品供应方承诺及时向合作伙伴及用户告知产品的安全缺陷或漏洞,并提出补救措施。参见:《全球数据倡议(全文)》,新华网,2020年9月8日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2020-09/08/c_1126466972.htm
(1)《2020年12月进出口商品主要国别(地区)总值表(美元值)》,中国海关总署,2021年1月14 日,http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/3511695/index.html
(1)笔者根据中国商务部及中国海关总署的数据综合整理而得。从2020年开始,中国与欧盟的贸易额数据不再包含中国与英国的贸易额。
(1)《中欧正式签署〈中欧地理标志协定〉》,新华网,2020年9月14日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-09/14/c_1126492774.htm;《中欧签署地理标志保护与合作协定——“好货互认”利好消费者》,中国政府网,2020年9月24日,http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-09/24/content_5546599.htm
(1)《王毅:中日达成五点重要共识和六项具体成果》,中国外交部,2020年11月24日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbz_673089/zyhd_673091/t1835081.shtml
(1)《2020年12月进出口商品主要国别(地区)总值表(美元值)》,中国海关总署,2021年1月14 日,http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/3511695/index.html
(2)“Covt approval must for all FDIs from neighbouring countries including China”,THE TIMES OF INIDA,April 18,2020,https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-approvalmust-for-all-fdis-from-neighbouring-countries-including-china/articleshow/75220060.cms
(1)“Office Memorandum Subject:Insertion of Rule 144(xi)in General Financial Rules(GFRs),2017”,Department of Expenditure,July 23,2020,https://doe.gov.in/sites/default/files/OM%20dated%2023.07.2020.pdf
(2)印度政府下架或禁用中国公司所开发的应用程序数据由笔者根据公开资料整理而得。
(3)《2020年12月进出口商品主要国别(地区)总值表(美元值)》,中国海关总署,2021年1月14日,http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/3511695/index.html;“Chinese Investment&Contracts in India”,China Global Investment Tracker,October,2021,https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/
(1)《2020年1-11月我对“一带一路”沿线国家投资合作情况》,中国商务部,2020年12月31日,http://topic.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/dgzz/202012/20201203027817.shtml
(2)《习近平向“一带一路”国际合作高级别视频会议发表书面致辞》,新华网,2020年6月18日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-06/18/c_1126132341.htm
基本信息:
中图分类号:F125;D820
引用信息:
[1]李巍,宋亦明.疫情阴影下的危机应对:2020年中国经济外交形势分析[J].战略决策研究,2021,12(03):3-35+101-102.
基金信息:
中国人民大学明德品牌研究计划“中国经济外交的理论与实践”(项目编号:14XNJ006)课题的资助
2021-05-10
2021-05-10