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当前,中美关系中的竞争性有所加强,这特别体现在美国政府对中美关系性质新的定位上。本文认为,用对抗的手段难以解决美国自身的经济问题,中国对美国本土的安全也没有构成真实的现实威胁,中美竞争在很大程度上是国际领导权竞争。当前人们对待中美国际领导权竞争的方式具有较大误导性,因为国际领导权作为一种国家利益,在很大程度上服务于经济利益和安全利益,而不能压倒经济利益和安全利益考虑,中美两国也很难通过双方之间的对抗来真正有效地建立国际领导权。
Abstract：At present, the competitiveness of China-U.S. relations has been intensified, which is particularly reflected in the new positioning of the Sino-U.S. relations from the U.S.perspective. The U.S. government is unable to solve America's own economic problems by means of confrontation, and China poses no real threat to American national safety, so the competition between China and the United States is largely the competition of international leadership. The way people treat the competition of the international leadership between China and the U.S. currently is more misleading, because as national interests, international leadership serves the economic and security interests more than anything else. Further, it is impossible for China or the United States to effectively establish international leadership through confrontation.
(1)关于这种权力转移的视角,可以参考A.F.K.Organski and Jacek Kugler,The War Ledger(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1980);Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke,eds.,Parity and War:Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger(Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,1996);Steve Chan,China,the U.S.,and the Power-Transition Theory:A critique(London and New York:Routledge,2008);戴尔·科普兰:《大战的起源》,黄福武译,北京大学出版社2008年版。
(2)Graham Allison,Destined for War:Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap(Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2017).反对修昔底德陷阱的观点可以参考:D.A.Welch,“Why International Relations Theorists Should Stop Reading Thucydides,”Review of International Studies,29(3)2003:301-319.
(3)United States Trade Representative,2017 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance,January 2018,p.2.
(4)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,Dec 2017,p.17.
(5)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,Dec 2017,p.25.
(6)Department of Defense of the United States of America,Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America,Jan 2018,p.2.
(7)史文:《超越美国西太平洋主导地位:稳定中美均势的必要》,载《当代美国评论》2017年第2期,第61-77页。
(8)Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America,p.2.
(9)David Dollar,“China’s rise as a regional and global power:The AIIB and the‘one belt,one road,”2015年7月15日,https://www.brookings.edu/research/chinas-rise-as-a-regional-and-globalpower-the-aiib-and-the-one-belt-one-road/.
(10)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,Dec 2017,pp.4 ,37-42.
(11)特朗普的中国政策顾问白邦瑞宣称中国长期对美国进行“战略欺诈”,中国的真实战略意图是削弱美国的全球领导地位。Michael Pillsbury,The Hundred-Year Marathon:China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower(New York:St.Martin’s Griffin,2015).
(12)这样的观点不仅在美国较为普遍,也在美国的一些盟国中有较大的市场。澳大利亚政府2017年11月发布的新版《外交白皮书》明确认为,澳大利亚从美国领导的全球秩序中显著受益,但当前这个体系受到了很大冲击。见Australian Government,2017 Foreign Policy White Paper,p.21.
(13)习近平:《决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利——在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告》,2017年10月27日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/19 cpcnc/2017-10/27/c_1121867529.htm
(14)不要说支持美国在实力相对衰落的情况下进行战略收缩的学者,即使反对美国进行战略收缩的学者,也往往是在这样的逻辑下展开论证。参考Stephen Brooks,G.John Ikenberry,William Wohlforth,“Don.t Come Home,America:The Case against Retrenchment”,International Security,Vol.37,No.3(Winter 2012/13),pp.7-51.
(15)对这个问题的讨论,也可参考Stefan A.Schirm,“Leaders in Need of Followers:Emerging Powers in Global Governance,”European Journal of International Relations,16(2),2010,pp.197-221.
(16)这种对长期前景的预期,并不排除未来几年内中美关系有所恶化,双边关系竞争性增强的可能性,这两者是可以并行不悖的。关于未来几年中美安全压力增大的分析,可以参考孙学峰:《中美战略竞争时代的中国安全战略》,载《战略决策研究》2018年2期。
基本信息:
中图分类号:D822.371.2
引用信息:
[1]周方银.国际领导权之争的误区与中美关系的前景[J].战略决策研究,2018,9(02):4-13+105.
2018-03-10
2018-03-10